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Importance of Risk (Weekend Newsletter)
Archived Issue

Weekend Newsletter
February 20, 2010

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      In This Edition:


    Importance of Risk


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  • Importance of Risk -- By: Bill Kraft
    Copyright 2010, Makin' Hay, Inc., All Rights Reserved
    Bill Kraft
    Bill Kraft
    Editor

    Over the last couple of weekends, I wrote about prioritizing trading skills and a subscriber emailed to emphasize the issue of risk. Probably nothing is more important than the concept of and issues surrounding risk. In fact, I wrote "Trade Your Way to Wealth" with the specific purpose of addressing risk awareness and risk management. In the book, I discuss a number of ways to manage and reduce risk because I am convinced that all too many traders and investors either fail to understand or at least fail to pay attention to the risk attendant to their trading.

    Trading is risky, and it is even riskier if the trader fails to appreciate just what risk he is taking. Buying a stock, quite simply, is a high risk proposition. The whole investment is at risk unless some hedge is also employed. Over the years I've heard investors say things like: "Yes, owning stock may be risky, but I have shares in a good company so I really don't have that much risk." Unfortunately, as so many have learned the hard way, that just isn't necessarily so.

    As an example, a couple of years ago when Citigroup (C) was trading near $40 a subscriber took me to task when I reiterated that I believed buy and hold was a dangerous strategy (when there was no exit plan). He wrote telling me he should be writing these articles and I didn't know what I was talking about since he and his family held Citigroup (C)(which he referred to as "that old doggie") since it was trading around $14. Quite an accomplishment now that the stock has not traded above $5.50 since early 2009. All we need consider is the disappearance of once great companies like Lehman Bros. or Washington Mutual. The list of once good companies that have since disappeared is shockingly long.

    Most, if not all, of the priorities I discussed in the last two articles are specifically related to management of risk. Consider, for example, entry decisions and strategies. I personally use an entry strategy that attempts to assure my initial exit is nearby in the event I am wrong on direction. In other words, part of my plan recognizes that I can be wrong and if I am I have an exit strategy that helps reduce risk by cutting losses quickly. So, too, do principles like money management, reward to risk ratios, pre-planning a trade, and knowledge of types and uses of orders help manage my risk. If I am not utilizing such skills I am opening myself to greater risk. While risk can rarely be removed completely, we can and should take sensible measures to manage and alleviate the risks of our trading.

    Once again, it comes down to our trading education. Unless we know, for example, what a protective put is and how it works, we don't know how to use it to reduce our risk. As a parting word this weekend, consider, if you will, what is more dangerous in the stock market than simply buying a stock? Is selling a naked put more dangerous than buying a stock? How about buying a call on the stock? How does the risk of owning a stock change if you also sell a covered call or buy a protective put? All these strategies and many others can be used to manage risk as long as we know what they are and how to use them. I cover these concepts in "Trade Your Way to Wealth" , but the information can be found many other places as well. It makes sense to know the answers ahead of time.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft


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    AT&T, Inc. (T)
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    Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:

    FedEx Corporation (FDX)
    After reaching the early year lows on the 5th and 8th of this month, FDX has enjoyed a steady move up that looks like it may not yet have finished. Recently, the price cleared the 20 day moving average and I am looking for a dip in that range or a break above the little resistance around 85 for a possible entry into some in the money LEAPS calls.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft
    Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
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    Trend trading as we try to practice it is a form of momentum trading. We prefer to try to capture profit out of the middle of the trend rather than try to catch reversal at bottoms and tops.

    Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:

    Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP)
    CHKP has been climbing steadily, if gently, since the low at the beginning of February. A break above Friday's high may be a signal for a continuation of this upward trend.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft
    Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
    "Trade Your Way to Wealth" by Bill Kraft is an Amazon.com best seller!
    "Smart Investors Money Machine" is Bill Kraft's most recent publication.
    "Trading for Keeps: Making Money with Low Risk Option Trades" a trading DVD by Bill Kraft


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    Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:

    CROCS Inc. (CROX)
    $10 Trader closed a position in CROX on Thursday to capture a 7.5% gain before commission in only 10 days. The stock stopped at a resistance on the weekly chart on Friday and a move above $8 could signal some genuine strength.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft
    Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
    "Trade Your Way to Wealth" by Bill Kraft is an Amazon.com best seller!
    "Smart Investors Money Machine" is Bill Kraft's most recent publication.
    "Trading for Keeps: Making Money with Low Risk Option Trades" a trading DVD by Bill Kraft


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